Well this morning was the king of head fakes. However, if you believe the market will almost always go in the direction that it has been going despite the news/economic data, then today would have been a great day for you. We had the pending home sales number m/m beat by 5% and upon that announcement at 10am EST everything shot the opposite of this number in the forex world, including the DXY (dollar index).
Jun 30, 2014
Well this is a good example of why you have to be patient when trading spot fx. If you stay small and set realistic profit targets then you will be able to slowly grind up the bank. As you can see I could have scalped a few times to get a couple $50 profits but held it out for at least a $30 gain on a trade that could have gone wrong if closed early. This is fun stuff though and the cost of carry is no biggie!!!
at 12:07 AM
Jun 27, 2014
Today is Friday, June 27, 2014 and it's a triple witching hour meaning that it's the last day of the week, last day of the month, and last day of the quarter for trading. This means you have people looking to exit the markets or look for new positions and it can make things wild. This morning wasn't too big of a volatility movement and there was not much correlation for any of the major forex pairs I watch in the NY session.
at 12:02 PM
Jun 25, 2014
Well it was an awesome morning for patient binary option traders. Today was my first day getting into spot fx and it was pretty cool. I am down about $100 because I had switched by bias on the USD/JPY do up just before news hit, but ended up getting out of the position and then scalping around the EUR/USD and USD/JPY to get some back. It was a huge drop in the DXY (dollar index) that made the major forex pairs I trade on move.
at 12:21 PM
Jun 24, 2014
Today, we had a very volatile forex market. This is great for scalpers that play short term trades, if they got the direction right. If they got it wrong then it could be terrible as they may have lost 20-30 pips on the volatility. So let's get deeper into what happened today and how you may have gotten faked out or succeeded in being ahead of the market moves.
at 3:31 PM
Jun 23, 2014
Well we were looking pretty indecive on our major forex pairs this morning on the NY session. There was various medium to high impact news on the EUR (worse than expected for most data points), JPY, and USD. The USD had a very strong existing home sales number that beat the forecast, which is what we were basing the bias on. Up to that point things were looking very confusing on hourly and 15 minute charts.
at 11:45 AM
Jun 20, 2014
Well this was a very difficult morning for forex directional trading. It was not that there wasn't good volume, but the volume was not very good for me at least in predicting price. The charts you see are hourly candles and sometimes I looked at 15m bars. You can see the European session had the E/U, A/U, and G/U selling off pretty good and the U/J bidding up, so by the time I started looking at what was going on at 8:30am est, it was tough to tell if U.S. traders were likely to change direction and continue with the FOMC directions (short USD) or keep going like the EURO session.
at 12:59 PM
Jun 19, 2014
What is going on forex traders. This morning for the NY session we had some big selling that had already taken place on the USD because of FOMC statements, interest rates, and the European session went right in line with the sentiment from yesterday afternoon as it took the USD/JPY even lower and EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD higher. So how to trade it?
at 11:24 AM
Jun 18, 2014
Today is June 18, 2014. It's another FOMC (happens once a month) day here in the forex markets so expect high movement at 2PM EST today as we have interest rate and Yellen speeches to deal with. So far, the morning went with the 'current balance' number as it ended up being about 10 billion dollars worse than expected, which should have thrown the USD index way down and it did.
at 11:58 AM
Jun 17, 2014
Alright, I have been thinking about how to pump fresh and new content through the smarthelping blog and so we are going to have a mid-day update of the morning forex session every single day. My perspective and engagement on it are going to be solid as I do 3 hours of morning trading with a live forex trading group so this should give people a good idea of how to trade the NY open. For the Asia session I will simply be trying to capture the other trade leaders in their entries when I can, but this will be an every day thing for the NY open. The biggest successful days on predicting price direction over 15 to 30 minute periods has been done the best with hourly bars. So here is what we had today.
at 11:55 AM
Jun 15, 2014
What You Need to Know About Who is Providing 58% of Daily Forex Trade Volume so You Can Trade Better
So trading is all about being right and being on the side of the majority of the market. In forex, 5 banks provide nearly 60% of the daily volume. The rest of its liquidity comes from retail and other institutional traders that have enough money to actually take part in inter-bank markets. This is very important for those trading binary options and spot forex with 50:1 leverage because these banks have to do certain things so they can make their money.
at 10:04 AM
Jun 12, 2014
Well there is no real complex answer. The market is going to go down from this string of low volume all-time highs because nobody got in on it and now that things are happening in the economic/geo political world that seem a little negative, people might actually be thinking about participating in the market. We are at very high valuations relative to recent pricing. This is why things are going to pull back.
at 4:22 PM
Jun 6, 2014
It's another fun day in the forex pits with non-farm payroll figures coming out. It didn't have much of an effect though as the number came in close to expectations and it was counter to the unemployment claims yesterday. Usually the forex market will trade off of these data points pretty heavily, but not today. The problem is there are two conflicting numbers and it put the markets at a standstill this morning. The other big news yesterday that caused much more volatility was the bank rates. The ECB or European Central Bank said they are going to charge banks to hold there cash more or less.
at 12:04 PM
Jun 2, 2014
Well for this week it looks like we have some shake ups in the U.S. markets. It seems that the markets have hit their all-time highs and people are deciding if they are too scared to hang onto their stocks or think the pricing will continue into major bull territory. For me, the option markets are hot and ready for some big returns on put options.
at 9:08 PM
Jun 1, 2014
I was browsing through some interesting looking indicators that seemed good at generating signals and ran across the Ichimoku Cloud. It's formal name is Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and it was made by a journalist. At first you see a bunch of lines and clouds that don't make any sense, but when reading more about how to use it, the thing is actually pretty useful. I used it once this evening on a binary options trade with the forex pair GBP/USD and had some good results.
at 11:04 PM