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Oil and Gas Well Drilling - 20 Year Cash Flow Financial Model

SmartHelping / Oil & Gas / Excel

Oil & Gas Well Drilling Financial Model

Build a 20-year cash flow forecast for oil and gas exploration, drilling and extraction. Schedule up to 46 drilling cohorts, model production decline and well economics, and review funding needs, investment returns and optional joint venture distributions.

20-year cash flow forecast Up to 46 drilling cohorts Production decline modeling Optional 3-hurdle waterfall

$75One-time purchase / Excel download

Add Oil & Gas Drilling Model to Cart

Immediate download after purchase. By purchasing, you agree to the Terms of Service.

Watch the walkthrough Deployment assumptions Reports & returns Waterfall options Included in bundles

See the model in action

Follow the drilling schedule through production and cash flow.

Watch the walkthrough to review the deployment assumptions and reporting outputs. Open the screenshots below for a closer look at the workbook.

Open the model screenshots

Preview the deployment schedule, cash flow reports and investor analysis before purchasing.

Up to 46 deployment cohorts

Set the timing, costs and production assumptions for each cohort.

Each cohort can contain multiple drill holes. Use one cohort for a single well site and clear the unused cohorts, or build a deployment schedule for hundreds or thousands of drill holes over time.

01

Well description and start month

Describe the oil or gas well cohort and set the drilling start month.

02

Exploration and production periods

Define the average length of exploration and the average production period in months.

03

Drill count and success rate

Set the count of drill holes and average drilling success rate. The expected number of successful drills can be a decimal.

04

Exploration costs

Define one-time exploration costs and ongoing monthly exploration costs.

05

Drilling and extraction costs

Set one-time drilling costs for successful finds and ongoing monthly extraction costs.

06

Selling price and annual changes

Enter the average selling price per unit and the average annual price change.

07

Share of production revenue kept

Define the percentage of production revenue retained for each cohort.

08

Initial production and decline

Set expected initial production per day and the monthly percentage decline in production.

Production summary by cohort

Review the modeled production profile and end-period economics.

The cohort summary shows the effect of the production period and decline assumptions alongside the lifetime output.

Production at the stop month

Review production remaining as a percentage of initial output and the production rate in units per day at the stop month.

Lifetime units extracted

Review the total units extracted over the modeled well life.

Monthly value of production

See the monthly value of units produced at the end month.

Gross monthly revenue per well

Review gross monthly revenue per well at the end month alongside the production summary.

Cash flow, operating KPIs and investor returns

Review the drilling program as a whole.

The workbook provides cash flow and investment reporting. Financial statements and an integrated three-statement model are not included.

Monthly and annual cash flow

Review cash flow across the deployment schedule in monthly detail and annual summaries.

IRR, NPV and equity multiple

Evaluate internal rate of return, net present value and equity multiple for the modeled investment.

Contributions, distributions and cash position

Review total contributions required, total distributions and the minimum cash position.

Executive summary

Review a high-level financial summary covering revenue, royalties, costs and cash flow.

Well and drilling KPIs

Track average gross revenue per active well, wells drilled per month and year, successful drills versus exploration drills, and average annual drilling success rate.

Visualizations and partner summaries

Review charts for the financial and operating data, a monthly cash flow waterfall and an annual GP/LP waterfall summary.

Flexible investor distributions

Configure the waterfall for the investment structure.

The optional cash flow waterfall includes three IRR hurdle rates, monthly calculations and an annual summary for the GP and LP.

Three IRR hurdles

Set the hurdle rates and cash flow shares for the joint venture distribution structure.

No outside investors

Set the outside investors’ percentages to 0% when you are modeling the project without outside investors.

Fixed-percentage split

Enter the same percentage share at each hurdle to use a fixed split for all cash flows.

Preferred-equity structure

The model can also support a hard or soft preferred-equity structure with a single IRR hurdle for the LP or outside preferred investors.

How to use the model

Start with deployment, then follow the cash flow.

1. 01

   Build the deployment schedule

   Define the cohorts you need, drilling start months, drill-hole counts, exploration periods and production periods. Clear the data from unused cohorts.

2. 02

   Enter well economics

   Set drilling success rates, exploration and extraction costs, selling prices, the share of revenue kept, initial daily production and monthly decline.

3. 03

   Configure investor distributions

   Set the three-hurdle waterfall, a fixed-percentage split or the preferred-equity structure as needed. Set outside investor percentages to 0% if there are no outside investors.

4. 04

   Review and compare the results

   Review cohort production, monthly and annual cash flow, funding requirements, returns and drilling KPIs. Change the assumptions to compare different deployment, production or pricing scenarios.

Questions to test in the forecast

Explore the assumptions that drive the economics.

Use different inputs to compare the cash flow and return outcomes for the drilling program.

Deployment pace and success rates

Compare the timing and scale of drilling alongside the expected success rate to review the resulting funding requirements and productive well count.

Production life and decline

Change initial daily production, monthly decline and the production period to compare lifetime output and cash flow.

Selling prices and revenue share

Compare average selling prices, annual price changes and the percentage of revenue retained.

Exploration and extraction costs

Review how one-time costs and ongoing monthly costs affect the contribution requirements, distributions and investment returns.

Who the model is for

For a single well site or a staged drilling program.

Operators and project planners

Plan oil, gas or combined drilling activity using cohort-specific timing, success rates, costs and production assumptions.

Investors and financial analysts

Review deployment economics, required contributions, cash distributions and the optional GP/LP waterfall over the 20-year forecast.

Also available in these bundles

Need more industrial and operating models?

This model is included in the Industry-Specific and Industrial Sector bundles. The Super Smart Bundle provides access to the complete public SmartHelping template collection.

Industry-Specific Financial Models

Explore financial models built around the revenue and cost drivers of different businesses.

View the Industry-Specific bundle

Industrial Sector Models

Explore financial models for industrial businesses and capital-intensive operations.

View the Industrial Sector bundle

Super Smart Bundle

Access the complete public SmartHelping template collection across industries and financial-analysis needs.

View the Super Smart Bundle

Related tools and reading

Explore project tracking, financial reporting and investment analysis.

Project Management Template

Organize projects and deployment schedules with a separate project-tracking tool.

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Use a separate accounting template to produce financial statements from actual results.

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IRR Target Investment Analysis

Explore a separate investment-analysis template built around an IRR target.

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Cash Flow Waterfall: 3 IRR Hurdles

Explore a dedicated cash flow waterfall template with three IRR hurdles.

Explore the template

Pricing Considerations

Read about factors that influence a company’s price point.

Read the article

Cohort Analysis

Read about best practices in cohort analysis.

Read the article

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Questions before you buy

A few useful details.

How many wells can I model?

The model supports up to 46 drilling cohorts. Each cohort has its own drill-hole count, so the schedule can represent hundreds or thousands of drill holes deployed over time.

Can I use it for just one well site?

Yes. Enter the assumptions for the site you want to analyze and clear the data from the other cohorts.

Can the successful-drill count be a decimal?

Yes. The model allows a decimal expected count when applying the average drilling success rate to the drill-hole count.

How does it model declining production?

Each cohort has inputs for expected initial production per day, monthly percentage decline and the average production period. The summary shows stop-month production and total units extracted over the well life.

Can I use a fixed cash flow split or no outside investors?

Yes. Use the same percentage share at each hurdle for a fixed split. Set outside investor percentages to 0% when there are no outside investors.

Does it support preferred equity?

Yes. The waterfall can support a hard or soft preferred-equity structure with a single IRR hurdle for the LP or outside preferred investors.

Are financial statements included?

No. The template provides cash flow forecasts, operating KPIs, investment returns and waterfall reporting. Financial statements and an integrated three-statement model are not included. A separate financial statement creator for actuals is linked above.

What is the forecast period?

The model provides a 20-year cash flow forecast with monthly and annual reporting.

Plan deployment and investment returns

Connect drilling activity to the cash flow forecast.

Get the Oil & Gas Well Drilling Financial Model for $75 and evaluate a 20-year drilling program with up to 46 cohorts.

Get the Oil & Gas Drilling Model

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