I was going for simplicity and usefulness on this Excel model. It has a top-down approach to quickly analyze the potential size and margins / profitability of a company over a 5-year forecasting period. This template is based on assumptions about total addressable market (TAM), SAM, and SOM (serviceable addressable and obtainable).
$45.00 USD
After purchase, the template will be immediately available to download. It is also included in the industry-specific models bundle, scenario analysis models bundle, valuation models bundle and the Super Smart Bundle.
Template Features:
- Configure up to 3 target channels, each with their own TAM, SAM, and SOM assumptions.
- Configure 3 scenarios (downside, base, and upside).
- Configure direct costs (COGS, variable costs, direct labor) for each segment.
- Model for up to 5 years, adjustable start years for each segment and for fixed expense schedule.
- 13 visualizations.
- Key metrics include implied value per unit / customer, gross margin per year (overall and by channel), valuation per year, market growth, revenue growth rate per year.
- Detailed summary down to EBITDA and high-level summary on major assumption tabs.
- Enter total outstanding shares per year as well as an EBITDA and/or Revenue multiple to get an estimated price per share each year.
For the scenario analysis, this model targets TAM and Market Penetration. That means the user can configure a TAM growth multiplier and a penetration ramp multiplier for downside, base, and upside cases. The user can adjust the magnitude of downside and upside.
I decided to make the serviceability assumption constant for each channel over the 5 years, but the market penetration (adoption) assumption can be adjusted each year. The 'serviceability' assumption is how you go from TAM to SAM and then the market penetration assumption is how you go from SAM to SOM (what you can potentially service versus what you think you will obtain of what is serviceable).
The market penetration assumption is adjustable each year because that shows the company capturing more market share.
The TAM assumption is adjustable each year because the total customers / potential unit sales may grow as perceptions and trends take hold.
The serviceability assumption is not adjustable over the 5 years because of structural constraints. In a reusable model like this, it is best to keep that as a constant, but still adjustable within each segment. The scenario that makes sense for that assumption to change over time is if you are accounting for the business being able to materially increase coverage or distribution during the forecast period. Here we are not.
For direct costs, I wanted to keep it high level without the user feeling like they are getting bogged down with too many inputs. For this reason, there are only two input rows for each type of direct cost for each segment. That is a percentage of revenue and a cost per unit (or customer depending on what you are defining for as the TAM). You can differentiate between the three channels (margins) but you don't have to input details about what makes up the total % or total cost per unit, just get the total amount and put it in.
Similar Templates:
