Financial Model - Retail Scaling - Up to 25 Locations

There are a lot of complex things happening for any organization that is trying to scale into the retail world. By retail, I mean a brick and mortar operation that must attain inventory / raw materials or some product that is then re-sold to customers from their location. Capital requirements can be large and if you are not doing the math right, there could be surprising cash shortfalls.



Pricing
You will be sent the excel template after purchase.

Specs:
  • Up to 25 locations
  • Option for locations to launch with varying start months over a 5-year period
  • Up to 3 average ticket values per location
  • Define a % of total daily tickets attributed to each ticket value
  • Define the % of capacity reached over the first 12 months of operation for each location
  • Define a growth rate of max capacity after year 1 per location
  • Define active days per month
  • Define acquisition cost / cost to develop each location
  • Define labor headcount over the first 12 months for each location
In general, the pattern is the same for each location. This financial model is smart enough to calculate each location's active months from launch dynamically based on when it started as well as overlay all the information from all other locations into a consolidated monthly and annual cash flow summary.

The pattern involves acquiring the location/building it, then scaling up to a defined starting max capacity over 12 months, and then growing the capacity after those first 12 months in each of the next 4 years.

There are a lot of complex tables (I call them a matrix) that must be built in order to do these calculations right. The number of months and years that a given location has been active for at any given month must be referenced. 

The other dynamic part of this is labor headcount, which can be defined per location and the actual headcount can scale from month 1 to 12 on a location basis. It can also grow after that (assuming some growth in pay rate).

The flexibility in this model is really something when you start to think of all the various things that must be calculated in order to figure this out timely and accurately.

The Profit/Loss summary goes all the way down to after-tax earnings. Also, inventory can be accounted for as purchased for 'x' months in advance, and based on that the actual cash flow will be reduced for each inventory purchase and increased by the cost of goods sold. This results in the actual effect on cash, which is really important when trying to figure out the capital requirements for scaling into capital intensive retail locations.

There is the option to have an exit month and an exit value based on a defined EBITDA multiple. The trailing 12 months are used for this calculation.

There is an option for investor funding and their cash returns relative to the owner/operator's cash returns and the project's performance as a whole. Each view has an IRR, ROI, and DCF analysis calculated.

I included an executive summary with the high-level financial information as well as unique visuals (15). These visuals do a great job at displaying the effect of all the assumptions over time. Some are on an annual basis and some on a monthly basis.

Finally, there are monthly and annual summaries that go into detail regarding how all the assumptions come together over time, and the final cash flow is attained.

It is important to read all the notes and watch the video in order to understand the intricacies of this financial model.

A few other models I have done that are somewhat similar include: