10-Year Financial Model for ATM Business Startup

I have been looking for a new and different type of financial model to build over the last few months and I came across the ATM industry. It turns out you can run an ATM business. It is just about giving the vendor/merchant of the locations you are wanting to set up at a good deal and then just a matter of purchasing the machines and having legal in order. Usually, you can get set up with an ATM processing company to protect you and they will take a fee per transaction.



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The excel template is one of the most dynamic I have ever done. There are revenue assumptions for up to 27 different traunches of ATM purchases. This is because each time you go to work a deal or setup your machines it could mean a different number of transactions per day, fee per transaction, and merchant fee. Those have to be variable in order to better forecast the potential revenue of your future operations.

The model uses a matrix that looks at each traunch and figures out the monthly revenue, transactions, and depreciation that results from the deals.

There are assumptions for debt and equity. The equity portion is also broken down between the owner and investors. If you don't plan on taking on any debt and/or investors, you can build it assuming you the owner are coming up with all the cash needed right off the bat.

Because the cash outlay can happen over time as you scale into your ATM count, the lowest cash position over time is used as the basis for equity requirement. This is assumed to be required right up front for the purpose of calculating the IRR (internal rate of return) for the project and for the investors/owner. A distribution summary shows how that cash is split up.

The equity multiple, ROI, and total cash returned detail will be available on the executive summary for the project, investor, and owner.

I did account for depreciation based on an expected useful life of the machines and the time that each is purchases. This will dynamically flow through in order to calculate a taxable income basis. The monthly tax is then calculated based on the net profit for a given year x tax rate divided by 1. This model defines net profit as EBITDA less interest expense, less depreciation expense, plus exit proceeds.

There is logic to account for the possible exit of your business based on an annual revenue multiple. You can pick the month of exit at any point in the 10-year period and everything updates, including the debt payback.

The general flow is from the assumption tabs in light yellow to the monthly/annual P&L detail, and then to the executive summary and distribution tab. There are plenty of visuals as well.