SmartHelping / Advertising / Excel Financial Model
Ad Network 5-Year Financial Model
Forecast an ad network from publisher growth, impressions, fill rates, CPM, and the network’s fee percentage. Compare publisher segments, configure costs, and evaluate financing and investment returns over five years.
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See the model in action
Walk through the ad network forecast.
Up to three publisher types
Give each publisher segment its own operating assumptions.
Use the three configurations for groups such as desktop, mobile, or offline publishers, with different impression profiles and pricing.
Publisher count and growth
Define a start month, starting publisher count, and monthly compounded growth rate for each type. The growth rate can change by year across the five-year forecast.
Impressions and impression growth
Set starting monthly impressions and monthly compounded impression growth. Adjust the growth assumption by year to model how impressions develop over time.
CPM and advertiser fill rate
Define average CPM and the percentage of available impressions filled by advertisers for each publisher type, with assumptions adjustable by year.
Network fee percentage
Set the share of facilitated ad revenue retained by the network as its fee. Different publisher types can have different fee assumptions.
Publisher cohorts and monetization
Connect growing ad inventory to network fee revenue.
Monthly publisher cohorts
The model tracks publishers by the month they enter the network, allowing impressions to grow as each cohort ages.
Filled impressions and CPM
The fill-rate assumption determines the portion of available impressions monetized by advertisers. CPM sets the ad revenue per 1,000 impressions.
Revenue retained by the network
The network’s fee percentage is applied to the facilitated ad revenue to calculate fee revenue. Publisher types can contribute different volumes and monetization rates.
Four configurable COGS methods
Build the cost structure that fits your network.
Use one method or combine several, according to the costs you need to represent.
Percentage of revenue
Define COGS as a percentage of revenue. Use this approach on its own by setting the other cost methods to zero.
Cost per publisher
Define a publisher-based cost for each of the three publisher types.
Cost tied to impressions
Define impression-based costs by publisher type so costs respond to impression volume.
Direct COGS amounts
Enter a hard-coded COGS amount for each publisher type that is independent of the other cost drivers.
Operating expenses with their own timing
Define a start month and monthly cost for each operating expense line across the five-year period.
Capital sources, exit, and returns
Evaluate the project and its funding structure.
Debt and equity funding
Define the source of funds using debt, investor equity, and owner equity.
Optional exit valuation
Set an exit month and sales revenue multiple to include an exit scenario in the financial analysis.
DCF by investment perspective
Review discounted cash flow analysis for the project as a whole and the investor and owner distribution streams, where applicable.
Investment return metrics
Review IRR, NPV, equity multiple, and ROI for the project, investor, and owner pools.
Detailed outputs and executive views
Review financial performance and network economics.
Monthly and annual financial detail
Review the forecast through monthly and annual profit-and-loss and cash flow views, with an annual executive summary.
Average network CPM and visuals
Track the average CPM of the network alongside charts for financial results and investment analysis.
Included in two collections
Explore more recurring-revenue and industry models.
SaaS and Recurring Revenue Bundle
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View the SaaS bundleIndustry-Specific Financial Model Bundle
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View the Industry-Specific bundleSupporting concepts and tools
Explore marketplaces, cohorts, costs, and valuation.
What Is a Marketplace?
Read about how marketplace businesses connect supply and demand.
Read the articleBest Practices in Cohort Analysis
Read about cohort analysis for subscription businesses.
Read the articleFIFO Cost of Goods Sold Calculator
Explore a separate FIFO inventory costing tool.
View template detailsDCF Analysis with Sensitivity Tables
Explore a separate template for DCF sensitivity analysis.
View template detailsQuestions before you start
A few useful details.
How many publisher types can I model?
The template supports up to three publisher types, each with its own growth, impressions, CPM, fill-rate, and fee assumptions.
Does the model support offline advertising?
Yes. The configurations can represent online or offline publisher categories, provided you express their activity through the model’s impression, CPM, and fill-rate assumptions.
Can I combine different COGS methods?
Yes. Use any combination of percentage-of-revenue costs, publisher-based costs, impression-based costs, and direct COGS amounts.
How does the model account for publisher age?
A monthly cohort structure allows impression growth to reflect how long each group of publishers has been on the network.
What investment metrics are included?
The model includes DCF analysis and IRR, NPV, equity multiple, and ROI for the project and applicable investor and owner pools.
From publisher assumptions to investment returns
Build your ad network financial forecast.
Ad Network 5-Year Financial Model — $45, delivered as an Excel download.
